dimarts, d’octubre 09, 2007

Lease Vs Own

FYI: This was a recent post and response on Craigslist (the most popular sell n buy forum in the US). One of the most interesting posts i've ever read, follwer by clearly the best thought out comeback i've ever read. this guy deserves an analyst of the year award...

Quint Vodegel
Post:
Pers-431649184:
Okay, I'm tired of beating around the bush. I'm a beautiful (spectacularly beautiful) 25 year old girl. I'm articulate and classy. I'm not from New York. I'm looking to get married to a guy who makes at least half a million a year. I know how that sounds, but keep in mind that a million a year is middle class in New York City, so I don't think I'm overreaching at all.

Are there any guys who make 500K or more on this board? Any wives? Could you send me some tips? I dated a business man who makes average around 200 - 250. But that's where I seem to hit a roadblock. 250,000 won't get me to central park west. I know a woman in my yoga class who was married to an investment banker and lives in Tribeca, and she's not as pretty as I am, nor is she a great genius. So what is she doing right? How do I get to her level?

Here are my questions specifically:
- Where do you single rich men hang out? Give me specifics- bars, restaurants, gyms
-What are you looking for in a mate? Be honest guys, you won't hurt my feelings
-Is there an age range I should be targeting (I'm 25)?
- Why are some of the women living lavish lifestyles on the upper east side so plain? I've seen really 'plain jane' boring types who have nothing to offer married to incredibly wealthy guys. I've seen drop dead gorgeous girls in singles bars in the east village. What's the story there?
- Jobs I should look out for? Everyone knows - lawyer, investment banker, doctor. How much do those guys really make? And where do they hang out? Where do the hedge fund guys hang out?
- How you decide marriage vs. just a girlfriend? I am looking for MARRIAGE ONLY
Please hold your insults - I'm putting myself out there in an honest way. Most beautiful women are superficial; at least I'm being up front about it. I wouldn't be searching for these kind of guys if I wasn't able to match them - in looks, culture, sophistication, and keeping a nice home and hearth.

* it's NOT ok to contact this poster with services or other commercial interests
PostingID: 432279810

Reaction:
Dear Pers-431649184:
I read your posting with great interest and have thought meaningfully about your dilemma. I offer the following analysis of your predicament. Firstly, I'm not wasting your time, I qualify as a guy who fits your bill; that is I make more than $500K per year. That said, here's how I see it.
Your offer, from the perspective of a guy like me, is -- plain and simple -- a cr@ppy business deal. Here's why: Cutting through all the B.S., what you suggest is a simple trade -- you bring your looks to the party and I bring my money. Fine, simple. But here's the rub: your looks will fade and my money will likely continue into perpetuity...in fact, it is very likely that my income increases but it is an absolute certainty that you won't be getting any more beautiful!
So, in economic terms you are a depreciating asset and I am an earning asset. Not only are you a depreciating asset, your depreciation accelerates! Let me explain, you're 25 now and will likely stay pretty hot for the next 5 years, but less so each year. Then the fade begins in earnest. By 35, stick a fork in you!

So in Wall Street terms, we would call yours a trading position, not a buy and hold...hence the rub...marriage. It doesn't make good business sense to "buy you" (which is what you're asking), so I'd rather lease. In case you think I'm being cruel, I would say the following. If my money were to go away, so would you, so when your beauty fades I need an out. It's as simple as that. So a deal that makes sense is dating, not marriage. Separately, I was taught early in my career about efficient markets. So, I wonder why a girl as "articulate, classy and spectacularly beautiful" as you has been unable to find your sugar daddy. I find it hard to believe that if you are as gorgeous as you say you are that the $500K hasn't found you, if not only for a tryout.
By the way, you could always find a way to make your own money and then we wouldn't need to have this difficult conversation. With all that said, I must say you're going about it the right way.

Classic "pump and dump."
I hope this is helpful, and if you want to enter into some sort of lease, let me know.

divendres, d’octubre 05, 2007

¿Quién acaonseja al...

No podria estar-hi més d'acord.

http://alfredfontbarrot.blogspot.com/2007_10_01_archive.html#8333722582392285135


Aprofiteu, a més a més, per gaudir d'aquest meravellós blog.

dimarts, d’octubre 02, 2007

Concurs "Explica-ho a un tonto" Primera Etapa

La concisión i simplicitat és una gran virtut per aquells que hem de comunicar a persones el temps de les quals val molts diners.

Per tal de portar la concisió i simplicitat un pas més enllà he decidit convocar aquest concurs per treure el millor de tots vosaltres.

El concurs consisteix en oferir una definició inèdita, concisa i simple dels conceptes que proposaré.

Evidentment:
1. La brevetat és un mèrit
2. La definició ha de ser inèdita
3. Prohibit utilitzar l'anglès, tots sabem que aquesta llengua facilita la feina (si la teva llengua materna és l'anglès, pots fer-ho en anglès)
4. Segueix els Writing Guidelines de Greg Mankiew reproduïts en aquest blog
5. La definició ha de poder posar-se a la capçalera d'una diapositiva de Power Point
6. Ha de ser comprensible per una persona sense cap coneixement d'economia

A cada definició se li assignarà una puntuació. Etapa rere etapa els participants aniran sumant punts. Un cop el concurs acabi aquell amb més punts serà proclamat guanyador.

FES LA TEVA PARTICIPACIÓ EN UN COMENTARI

Primera Etapa

Cal definir Stock i Flux i destacar el caràcter oposat d'aquests dos termes.
Per donar un punt de partida i fixar un nivell mínim ofereixo la definició que The MIT Diccionary of Modern Economics dóna dels termes que ens ocupen (l'organització, i.e. jo sí que pot utilitzar l'anglès).

Flow: The quantity of an economic variable measured over a period of time. Thus, the flow of investment may be measured as the amount of investment expenditure per year. The term is used to distinguish such measurements from stocks, which measures the physical quantity as an economic variable existing at any moment in time.

dimecres, de setembre 26, 2007

Emili - Crack Mediàtic

El passat dilluns dia 24 de setembre em van convidar a Radio Sabadell per representar la UPF.

El propòsit del col·loqui era debatre la relació entre un bon expedient i la qualitat de la primera feina.

Col·loqui a Radio Sabadell


Tots el comentaris i opinions seran benvinguts.

Prometo que la pròxima vegada que em cridin per anar a la ràdio provocarem una una mica més.

dijous, de setembre 20, 2007

Diferencia entre un economista i un consultor

Amb l'objectiu d'arribar a conclusions sobre la realitat -complexa per definició- els economistes i els consultors utilitzen dos procesos epistemològics diferents.

Els economistes tendeixen a simplificar la realitat mentre que els consultors tendeixen a trencar-la en trocets.

El primer mètode assumeix el cost de perdre algunes raons rellevants que podrien explicar alguns fenòmens mentre que el segon mètode assumeix el cost de perdre les interconnexions entre els trocets.

diumenge, de setembre 16, 2007

Write Well

La capacitat de comunicar idees persuasivament i amb credibilitat és una part importantíssima de l'èxit d'un document de consultoria.

En la meva recerca per trobar el Sant Graal de la comunicació us remeto a una bona guia (tot i que només una més). L'autor és Gregory Mankiw i la va escriure quan era el "chair" del consell d'assessors econòmics del President Bush Jr. entre el 2003 i el 2005. El professor Mankiew va escriure aquesta guia pels responsables de preparar l'"Economic Report of the President".

ERP Writing Guidelines

  • Stay focused. Remember the take-away points you want the reader to remember. If some material is irrelevant to these points, it should probably be cut.
  • Keep sentences short. Short words are better than long words. Monosyllabic words are best.
  • The passive voice is avoided by good writers.
  • Positive statements are more persuasive than normative statements.
  • Use adverbs sparingly.
  • Avoid jargon. Any word you don’t read regularly in a newspaper is suspect.
  • Never make up your own acronyms.
  • Avoid unnecessary words. For instance, in most cases, change
    o “in order to” to “to”
    o “whether or not” to “whether”
    o “is equal to” to “equals”
  • Avoid “of course, “clearly,” and “obviously.” Clearly, if something is obvious, that fact will, of course, be obvious to the reader.
  • The word “very” is very often very unnecessary.
  • Keep your writing self-contained. Frequent references to other works, or to things that have come before or will come later, can be distracting.
  • Put details and digressions in footnotes. Then delete the footnotes.
  • To mere mortals, a graphic metaphor, a compelling anecdote, or a striking fact is worth a thousand articles in Econometrica.
  • Keep your writing personal. Remind readers how economics affects their lives.
  • Remember two basic rules of economic usage:
    o “Long run” (without a hyphen) is a noun. “Long-run” (with a hyphen) is an adjective. Same with “short(-)run.”
    o “Saving” (without a terminal s) is a flow. “Savings” (with a terminal s) is a stock.
  • Buy a copy of Strunk and White’s Elements of Style. Also, William Zinsser’s On Writing Well. Read them—again and again and again.
  • Keep it simple. Think of your reader as being your college roommate who majored in English literature. Assume he has never taken an economics course, or if he did, he used the wrong textbook.
Podeu consultar-los al seu Blog.

diumenge, de març 04, 2007

No és obvi

La sinceritat, l'honestedat o la transparència tenen un valor limitat o, si més no, molt diferent del que acostumem a donar-los. Quin valor té un regal, si cada dia n'hi ha un. Quin valor té el sol en els països assolellats o la pluja en els plujosos. El vertader valor de la sinceritat, de la transparència és en aquelles circumstàncies en que l'home més esquerp, l'home més agressiu o l'home més segur mostra les seves pors o les seves debilitats. Mostrar-se sempre sincer o fer de les nostres pors la nostra façana és pornografia.

Valoro extraordinàriament aquell moment en que tu, la noia més bella, la noia que em manllevava l'autoestima i la seguretat, mostrés la vulnerabilitat de les seves conviccions. No vas destrossar el teu propi mite, vas engrandir-lo. La seguretat de la inseguretat et va fer més segura, més superior.

La robustesa ens serveix per aixecar-nos amb una rialla a la cara després de cada caiguda, per repel·lir els mesquins i per eixamplar els horitzons. La vulnerabilitat i la delicadesa són el pont entre aquest gust per l'abisme i la tranquilitat de la llar.

L'equilibri d'aquestes dues qualitats és la complitut, és la persona capaç d'aconseguir el que vulgui, és la persona valenta, la que s'atreveix a tot.

Tu ets la por del soldat, però també el soldat; ets la sensibilitat del botxí, però també el botxí. No ets evident i només et presentes tal com ets als que són capaços de percebre-ho. Rebutges els qui defensen la transparència total, és a dir, la vulnerabilitat total, i també aquells que no veuen més enllà del que és obvi i no veuen en tu la teva tendresa o la teva vulnerabilitat parcial. Normalment són els mateixos.

Perquè allò realment important és el grau, la tria. Distingir els bons amb un premi, que ets tu, i ignorar els dolents amb la teva condescendència. És trobar el clos paricular on la vulnerabilitat només rep comprensió i suport i no contraatac. És, per damunt de tot, la confiança en mi i l'elogi d'entrar en tu.
 
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